Let’s hand it to Narendra Modi. He really pulled off a tremendous victory, one that took almost everyone by surprise, including himself?For one thing he made all these fancy pollsters…exit polls/pre-poll surveys eat humble pie. Their situation is pretty similar to Forex analysts who most of the time wrongly forecast the direction to be taken by any currency.
But even as the euphoria of the victory reaches a crescendo in the BJP camp (it is more the Gujarat BJP camp, as the central leadership do seem a little guarded in their enthusiasm) and the Congress leadership move around with their long faces (I really pity those Congress blokes, they cannot even speak their mind and blame it all on Sonia and her ill advised merchants of death speech) it appears a good time to understand what lies ahead.
In the short-term, the Nuclear Deal is dead. Congress will just not have the stomach to take on the Left now and try push it through once again. And what about the long-term?
First and foremost, there is no getting away from the fact that this is an out and out Modi victory. Narendra Modi becomes even more strong in Gujarat (assuming that is still possible) as the Keshubhai’s ************ have shown exactly how much they are worth – zilch, nil, nothing.
It has also shown, for the second time after Uttar Pradesh, that while a Rahul/Sonia rally may draw the crowds, it certainly does not draw votes. It has also vindicated that Madam’s strength is back-room machinations and she still has a long way to go before she becomes a potent force as a mass leader.
As regards the BJP, it has totally failed to draw up any credible second rung leadership for the past 15 years. With Pramod Mahajan dead, Uma Bharti ousted and too volatile anyway to be a part of the party machinery, Sushma Swaraj, pretty much in the wilderness, the likes of Arun Jaitley/Rajiv Pratap Rudy while being intelligent, cerebral and smart politicians are hardly mass leader material, and less said of the Rajnath Singhs and Venkaiah Naidu the better, let’s face it there is not really much of a choice for the BJP.
With Vajpayee moving out of active politics (finally) and Advani looking to build up a winning team for the 2009 elections, Modi’s ascendancy to the BJP national stage is a foregone conclusion. Not that Advani will do it very willingly, but then, he isn’t exactly spoilt for choice.
So Modi it will be, spreading his brand of hate filled Hindutva politics. The NDA will probably look very different from what it is now with Modi calling the shots. Modi himself would be the mythical Frankenstein who will soon become too hot for Advani to handle.
The Congress under the leadership of an Italian expatriate can mount only a limited challenge and the “third front” would have been ok, if only it was ever there. Of course the only thing worse than the BJP is the Left, and anyway, they will never really be the leading party at the centre.
It has also shown, for the second time after Uttar Pradesh, that while a Rahul/Sonia rally may draw the crowds, it certainly does not draw votes. It has also vindicated that Madam’s strength is back-room machinations and she still has a long way to go before she becomes a potent force as a mass leader.
As regards the BJP, it has totally failed to draw up any credible second rung leadership for the past 15 years. With Pramod Mahajan dead, Uma Bharti ousted and too volatile anyway to be a part of the party machinery, Sushma Swaraj, pretty much in the wilderness, the likes of Arun Jaitley/Rajiv Pratap Rudy while being intelligent, cerebral and smart politicians are hardly mass leader material, and less said of the Rajnath Singhs and Venkaiah Naidu the better, let’s face it there is not really much of a choice for the BJP.
With Vajpayee moving out of active politics (finally) and Advani looking to build up a winning team for the 2009 elections, Modi’s ascendancy to the BJP national stage is a foregone conclusion. Not that Advani will do it very willingly, but then, he isn’t exactly spoilt for choice.
So Modi it will be, spreading his brand of hate filled Hindutva politics. The NDA will probably look very different from what it is now with Modi calling the shots. Modi himself would be the mythical Frankenstein who will soon become too hot for Advani to handle.
The Congress under the leadership of an Italian expatriate can mount only a limited challenge and the “third front” would have been ok, if only it was ever there. Of course the only thing worse than the BJP is the Left, and anyway, they will never really be the leading party at the centre.
All those who say Modi's Gujarat brand of Hindutva politics will fail at the centre are fooling themselves. The man is too smart and the people are gullible enough. If BJP could have come to power once on the Hindutva/Ram Mandir agenda, how different an agenda will Modi bring. National security/identity and terrorism can be an equally potent agenda when espoused by fiery orators like Modi.
So come 2009, Narendra Modi magic may just work in energising the BJP workers and its cadres in pulling off a slim majority at the centre, helped by a week and rudderless Congress.
With Advani at the helm and Narendra Modi a de-facto Deputy PM, this new BJP government at the centre will be very different from the earlier one we saw, under the sobering stewardship of Vajpayee.
It may just mark the beginning of the end of Indian polity as we know it.
Of course, at this point of time, all this may seem a little too far fetched and contrived. But what if it actually does happen?
If you were to give this possible outcome a score between 1 to 10, with 1 being impossible and 10 being a certainty of this happening, what would be your score.
If it is anything above 5, well there's still time to set things right.
